Some years, flu season tiptoes in.
This year, it barged through the front door.
If you’ve been watching the news from England, Japan, or Canada, you may have felt that familiar tightening in your chest — the “here we go again” feeling every older adult understands. The headlines aren’t subtle: the flu is early, spreading fast, and it’s not the gentler kind.
If you’ve been putting off getting your flu shot, these new reports may nudge you in the right direction.
A Flu Strain That’s Acting… Different
Doctors in the U.K. and Canada are sounding the alarm about a version of H3N2 — a strain that already tends to hit older adults hardest. According to reporting from the BMJ and NBC News, this year’s H3N2 virus didn’t just appear early — it acquired seven new mutations over the summer. That’s not typical.
One infectious-disease expert told NBC the virus is now “quite different” from the one included in this year’s vaccine. That can make the shot less precise — but not less important. (More on that in a minute.)
In England, cases are triple what they were this time last year, and hospitals are warning of one of the “toughest winters ever.” Young people and schoolchildren are driving the surge, which usually means older adults get hit next.
Japan Is Already Seeing Outbreak Levels
Japan often serves as an early preview of what the Northern Hemisphere can expect — and the picture isn’t pretty.
According to data from Japan’s Ministry of Health (via Nippon TV), flu cases there jumped 2.37 times in a single week, marking 11 straight weeks of increases. Some prefectures are approaching the government’s “warning level,” the point at which large-scale epidemics become likely.
More than 2,300 schools and daycares have already been partially closed.
If it’s spreading that quickly there, it’s only a matter of time before the U.S. feels it.
And Here at Home? We’re Flying a Little Blind.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hasn’t issued a detailed national flu update since September, because of the ongoing federal shutdown. NBC reports that deep staffing cuts may delay data even after operations resume.
That means we’re relying on state labs and anecdotal reports. And those reports suggest flu A — often H3N2 — is already showing up across the country.
When information is thin, prevention matters even more.
“Will the Flu Shot Even Work This Year?”
A fair question — and one that doctors are answering with an emphatic yes, please get it anyway.
This year’s vaccine may not be a perfect match, but it still trains your immune system to respond better than it would on its own. If you’re over 65, you qualify for the high-dose or adjuvanted flu shot, which offers stronger protection tailored for older adults.
Here’s what experts told NBC News:
- Last year, the flu shot kept adults out of the hospital 55% of the time.
- Early data from the U.K. shows up to 40% protection against hospitalization this year — even with the new mutations.
- As one infectious-disease specialist put it: even without a perfect match, the shot helps keep people “out of the cemetery.”
Harsh words, perhaps — but honest ones.
IMPORTANT SIDEBAR: RSV vaccine more than 90% effective in real-world study
- RSVpreF had a vaccine effectiveness of 92% for patients aged 60 years or older.
- Effectiveness remained at 90% or higher in other patient groups.
Pfizer’s respiratory syncytial virus vaccine was more than 90% effective among older adults during the first season it was available, including among those with underlying conditions or severe disease, real-world data showed.
“RSV is a major cause of severe acute respiratory illness among older adults in the United States and worldwide,” Sara Y. Tartof, PhD, MPH, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Kaiser Permanente Southern California Department of Research & Evaluation, told Healio.
“Infection could lead to hospitalization and then the likely need for respiratory support.”
The Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting, wondering, or simply tired of being poked every fall, I understand. But this year isn’t the one to roll the dice.
The flu is early. It’s fast. It’s mutating. And it hits older adults harder than anyone else.
So this week, if you can:
Call your pharmacy.
Schedule the appointment.
Roll up your sleeve.
Your future self — and your winter — will be better for it.
Health Disclaimer: This article offers general information only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice. Always consult your healthcare provider about your personal health needs.
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